Airbnb (ABNB) AI Stock Analysis

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Airbnb

(NASDAQ:ABNB)

78Outperform

Airbnb's strong financial performance and positive international growth are key strengths, contributing to a robust overall stock score. While the technical indicators show positive momentum, the premium valuation and challenges in the US market present some risks. Overall, Airbnb is well-positioned for growth, but investors should be mindful of valuation concerns and potential market challenges.

Positive Factors

Market Position

ABNB is uniquely well-positioned to expand adoption of Experiences/Services, given interactions between the guest and host prior to arrival.

Product Integration

The slick app refresh gives both new products good visibility & a strong integration into the booking path, likely increasing the potential to drive attachment.

Revenue Growth

If Airbnb successfully expands its service offerings, these could add significantly to total revenues and revenue growth in the future.

Negative Factors

Execution Risks

Managing services vendors to a high standard is challenging and the experiences category is very competitive, creating execution risks.

Scalability Challenges

Scalability remains a key question as Experiences/Services are initially launching in 650/260 cities, which is still small relative to the 150k+ localities with active ABNB listings.

Supply Constraints

The current supply of Airbnb's new services is very limited, and the success depends heavily on the pace of supply rollout and property host participation.

Airbnb (ABNB) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$86.48B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)6.36M

Price to Earnings (P/E)34.6

Beta (1Y)1.35

Revenue Growth9.68%

EPS Growth-47.83%

CountryUS

Employees7,300

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength73

IndustryTravel Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.24

Shares Outstanding431,602,200

10 Day Avg. Volume6,773,689

30 Day Avg. Volume6,356,906

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-8.16

Price to Book (P/B)9.94

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio18.09

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.70

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.26

Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.40

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$145.33

Price Target Upside5.73% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering35

Airbnb Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAirbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform that enables hosts to offer stays and experiences to guests worldwide. The company's marketplace model connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces and experiences. It primarily offers private rooms, primary homes, or vacation homes. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyAirbnb generates revenue primarily through service fees charged to both guests and hosts on each booking facilitated through its platform. Guests typically pay a service fee ranging from 0% to 20% of the booking subtotal, while hosts are charged a service fee of around 3% for each reservation. Additionally, Airbnb offers a 'Host-Only Fee' option for professional hosts, which ranges from 14% to 16%. The company also earns money through its 'Airbnb Experiences' service, which allows hosts to offer activities and tours, with Airbnb earning a commission on each experience booked. Significant partnerships with property management companies and tourism boards also contribute to its earnings, enhancing its market presence and expanding its service offerings.

Airbnb Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Gross Booking Value

Gross Booking Value
Reflects the total dollar amount of all bookings on the platform, indicating the overall demand and popularity of Airbnb's offerings and its ability to capture market share in the travel industry.

Chart InsightsAirbnb's Gross Booking Value has shown a strong recovery post-pandemic, with a consistent upward trend into 2025. The latest earnings call highlights robust financial performance with a 12% year-over-year revenue growth and significant free cash flow. However, challenges such as slower growth expectations for Q1 2025 due to FX headwinds and regulatory hurdles in urban markets could impact future momentum. Despite these challenges, Airbnb is investing in new businesses and platform enhancements, indicating a strategic focus on long-term growth and market expansion.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Airbnb Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Airbnb demonstrates strong financial health, with solid growth, profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The company has a robust balance sheet and consistent revenue growth. However, there is room for improvement in equity growth and cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Airbnb has shown robust performance in its income statement. The company's Gross Profit Margin is strong at 80.0% TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin is also impressive at 22.6% TTM, highlighting profitability. Revenue has grown steadily, with a 13.6% increase from 2022 to 2023 and a further 12.1% increase in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reinforcing Airbnb's solid earnings capability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Airbnb's balance sheet reflects a balanced financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.25 TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) is excellent at 31.9% TTM, indicating effective use of equity capital. The Equity Ratio is 31.7% TTM, showcasing a stable asset base. However, there is room for improvement in equity growth to enhance financial stability further.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

The cash flow statement is strong, with a positive Free Cash Flow of 4.4 billion TTM, showing effective cash generation. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.73 TTM, indicating strong cash earnings. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is favorable at 1.73 TTM. However, the Free Cash Flow growth has slowed recently, suggesting potential areas for improvement in cash management.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.23B	11.10B	9.92B	8.40B	5.99B	3.38B
	Gross Profit
8.99B	9.22B	8.21B	6.90B	4.84B	2.50B
	EBIT
2.49B	2.55B	1.52B	1.80B	429.00M	-3.59B
	EBITDA
2.55B	2.55B	2.23B	2.10B	-64.36M	-4.38B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.54B	2.65B	4.79B	1.89B	-352.00M	-4.58B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
11.49B	10.61B	10.07B	9.62B	8.32B	6.39B
	Total Assets
25.06B	20.96B	20.64B	16.04B	13.71B	10.49B
	Total Debt
2.28B	2.29B	2.30B	2.34B	2.42B	2.33B
	Net Debt
-5.32B	-4.57B	-4.57B	-5.04B	-3.65B	-3.15B
	Total Liabilities
17.12B	12.55B	12.48B	10.48B	8.93B	7.59B
	Stockholders Equity
7.94B	8.41B	8.16B	5.56B	4.78B	2.90B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
4.40B	4.52B	3.88B	3.40B	2.16B	-667.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
4.38B	4.52B	3.88B	3.43B	2.19B	-629.73M
	Investing Cash Flow
-683.00M	-616.00M	-1.04B	-28.00M	-1.35B	79.59M
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.56B	-3.57B	-2.43B	-689.00M	1.43B	2.94B

Airbnb Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price137.45

Price Trends

50DMA

122.81

Positive

100DMA

129.61

Positive

200DMA

129.25

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

3.95

Negative

RSI

67.03

Neutral

STOCH

89.87

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABNB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 137.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 124.57, above the 50-day MA of 122.81, and above the 200-day MA of 129.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.87 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ABNB.

Airbnb Risk Analysis

Airbnb disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Airbnb reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Airbnb Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABNB	78 Outperform	$86.48B	34.58	32.06%	―	9.68%	-47.83%
BKNG	77 Outperform	$171.24B	32.74	-146.32%	0.69%	9.47%	20.70%
TRIP	77 Outperform	$2.05B	43.09	5.91%	―	1.43%	121.44%
TCOM	76 Outperform	$42.76B	19.24	12.91%	0.42%	18.12%	69.44%
EXPE	75 Outperform	$21.61B	19.95	119.16%	0.24%	5.57%	61.19%
MMYT	75 Outperform	$11.70B	124.51	8.33%	―	28.51%	367.34%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$7.00B	11.55	3.07%	3.89%	2.60%	-21.53%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ABNB

Airbnb

136.79

-10.40

-7.07%

TCOM

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR

66.38

10.22

18.20%

EXPE

Expedia

166.21

53.00

46.82%

MMYT

Makemytrip

105.17

20.44

24.12%

BKNG

Booking Holdings

5,237.74

1,533.67

41.40%

TRIP

TripAdvisor

15.71

-2.98

-15.94%

Airbnb Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 10.84%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted Airbnb's strong global growth and financial performance, particularly in international markets. However, challenges in the US market and inbound travel to the US, along with expectations for moderated growth, indicate some areas of concern. The company remains optimistic about long-term growth and product expansions.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Start to 2025

Guests on Airbnb spent nearly $25 billion in Q1 2025, indicating robust demand despite global uncertainties.

Significant Booking Growth

143 million nights and experiences booked, up 8% year-over-year.

Revenue Increase

Revenue for Q1 was $2.3 billion, up 6% year-over-year. Excluding FX and calendar factors, revenue would have grown 11%.

Cash Flow and Stock Repurchase

Generated $1.8 billion of free cash flow in Q1. Repurchased $807 million of common stock with $2.5 billion remaining on repurchase authorization.

Expanding International Markets

Latin America and Asia Pacific saw significant growth, with Latin America growing in the low-20%s and Asia Pacific in the mid-teens.

Negative Updates

US Market Softness

US domestic travel showed softer trends, with economic uncertainty affecting long-term booking lead times.

Inbound Travel Decline

Decrease in foreign travelers to the US, impacting overall travel demand in the region.

Moderating Growth Expectations

Anticipated moderation in year-over-year growth for Q2 in nights and experiences booked.

Profitability Challenges

Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be flat to slightly down in Q2 compared to the previous year.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Airbnb reported robust financial results, with guests spending nearly $25 billion on the platform. The company recorded 143 million nights and experiences booked, marking an 8% year-over-year increase. Latin America led regional growth with a low-20% rise, followed by Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America. Revenue reached $2.3 billion, up 6% from the previous year, and adjusted EBITDA was $417 million, representing an 18% margin. Free cash flow for the quarter was significant at $1.8 billion, contributing to a trailing 12-month figure of $4.4 billion and a 39% free cash flow margin. With $11.5 billion in corporate cash and investments, Airbnb repurchased $807 million of common stock and maintains a $2.5 billion authorization for further repurchases. Looking ahead to Q2, the company expects revenue between $2.99 billion and $3.05 billion, indicating a 9% to 11% growth, with an anticipated adjusted EBITDA margin at least 34.5% for the full year. Despite global economic volatility, Airbnb remains optimistic, supported by its adaptable business model and strategic investments in growth initiatives.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.