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BigBearai Holdings (BBAI)
NYSE:BBAI
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BigBearai Holdings
(NYSE:BBAI)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(1.27%Upside)
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Improvement
The company took meaningful steps during 1Q25 to improve the balance sheet, increasing cash to $107.6M and decreasing debt to approximately $142.0M.
Contract Awards
BigBear was awarded a $165 million, 5-year contract for the U.S. Army Global Force Information Management (GFIM) Production Services.
Partnerships
BigBear's partnership with L3Harris as the exclusive provider of computer vision, predictive analytics, and event alerting analytics applications for L3Harris's autonomous surface vessels remains a positive.
Negative Factors
Earnings Guidance
Shares of BigBear.ai are trading down over 20% after the company reported fourth-quarter results below consensus and issued 2025 guidance below expectations.
Modest Revenue Growth
The revenue outlook for 2025 of between $160.0M and $180.0M suggests only modest revenue growth, just 7.4% at the midpoint and compared to current Street estimates of $193.9M.
Revenue Miss
Revenue of $43.8M was well below the Street's $54.6M estimate resulting in the company missing its full year guide of between $165.0M and $180.0M.
BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)75.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.01
Revenue Growth9.40%
EPS Growth13.55%
CountryUS
Employees630
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength81
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.25
Shares Outstanding291,188,800
10 Day Avg. Volume93,168,862
30 Day Avg. Volume75,429,495
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.12
Price to Book (P/B)4.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-23.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.83Price Target Upside22.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services. It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning. The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services. This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions. Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities. The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.
How the Company Makes MoneyBigBear.ai Holdings generates revenue through the sale of its AI and analytics software solutions, which are provided to customers on a subscription basis or through one-time licensing fees. The company also earns income from offering consulting and professional services, helping clients implement and optimize their AI strategies. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with government agencies, particularly in the defense sector, as well as partnerships with commercial enterprises looking to leverage AI for competitive advantage. Significant partnerships and collaborations with technology firms and government entities further bolster its earnings by expanding its market reach and enhancing its product offerings.
BigBearai Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 18.26%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted growth in revenue, a strong cash position, and significant contract acquisition in national security, indicating positive company developments. However, increased net losses, negative adjusted EBITDA, and higher non-cash losses reflect challenges in financial performance. The highlights and lowlights are balanced, demonstrating both positive and negative aspects in the company's performance.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Revenue
Revenue for the quarter was $34.8 million, up 5% year-on-year compared to $33.1 million in the first quarter of 2024.
New Contract in National Security
Secured a significant new contract to deliver and maintain the Department of Defense Joint Staff J35's Orion Decision Support Platform.
Cash Position Improvement
Ended Q1 with $108 million in cash and cash equivalents, up from $81 million in Q1 of 2024 and $50 million at the end of 2024.
Backlog Growth
Backlog was $385 million at the end of the first quarter, up 30% and $89 million compared to Q1 of 2024.
Negative Updates
Increased Net Loss
Net loss in the first quarter of 2025 was $62 million compared to the net loss of $127.8 million in the first quarter of 2024, influenced by non-cash items.
Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $7 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to negative $1.6 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Higher Non-Cash Losses
Higher non-cash losses on the increase in the fair value of derivatives from $23.8 million in Q1 of 2024 to $33.3 million in Q1 of 2025.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025 earnings call, BigBear.ai reaffirmed its full-year guidance despite a challenging business environment. The company reported a 5% year-over-year increase in revenue to $34.8 million, driven by contracts from the Department of Homeland Security and digital identity awards. Gross profit rose by 6% to $7.4 million, with a gross margin of 21.3% compared to 21.1% in Q1 2024. The adjusted gross margin, excluding equity compensation, stood at 28.6%. Despite a net loss of $62 million, down from $127.8 million in the previous year due to non-cash items, the company ended the quarter with a strong cash position of $108 million and a backlog of $385 million, up 30% year-over-year. While adjusted EBITDA was negative $7 million, BigBear.ai emphasized its strategic focus on innovation, international growth, and business alliances to capitalize on opportunities in national security and critical infrastructure.BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
BigBearai Holdings is experiencing growth in revenue but faces challenges with profitability and cash generation. The balance sheet shows improvements in equity, but cash flows remain a concern, highlighting the need for better operational efficiency and cash management to ensure long-term sustainability. The reliance on external financing could pose risks if not managed carefully.Income Statement
BigBearai Holdings shows a consistent increase in revenue over the years, with a 3.1% increase from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company has struggled with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT, EBITDA, and net income margins. The net profit margin for TTM is significantly negative, indicating challenges in cost management or operational efficiency.30
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reflects a high level of equity compared to total assets, with an equity ratio of 49.9% for TTM. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.05, suggesting limited leverage. The company has improved its stockholders' equity significantly from negative figures in previous years, indicating a positive trend in financial stability.40
Negative
Cash Flow
BigBearai Holdings has shown negative operating and free cash flows consistently, which is a concern for liquidity. The free cash flow growth rate has been negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is not favorable, reflecting challenges in generating cash from core operations. Despite this, financing activities have provided substantial cash inflows, possibly from debt or equity financing.25
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 159.87M | 158.24M | 155.16M | 155.01M | 145.58M | 91.32M | Gross Profit |
| 45.62M | 45.22M | 40.60M | 42.99M | 34.07M | 21.68M | EBIT |
| -54.09M | -45.68M | -39.03M | -50.17M | -78.47M | -34.10K | EBITDA |
| -38.17M | -45.68M | -37.57M | -101.02M | -107.44M | -34.10K | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -193.93M | -257.09M | -60.37M | -121.67M | -123.55M | -34.10K |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 107.61M | 50.14M | 32.56M | 12.63M | 68.90M | 9.70M | Total Assets |
| 396.27M | 343.78M | 199.91M | 195.31M | 383.32M | 218.37M | Total Debt |
| 10.68M | 146.41M | 200.59M | 200.28M | 194.60M | 106.99M | Net Debt |
| -96.93M | 96.27M | 168.04M | 187.64M | 125.70M | 97.29M | Total Liabilities |
| 198.47M | 347.49M | 267.25M | 233.18M | 260.95M | 117.97M | Stockholders Equity |
| 197.79M | -3.71M | -67.33M | -37.87M | 122.37M | 100.40M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -39.94M | -38.60M | -22.14M | -49.69M | -20.43M | 922.00K | Operating Cash Flow |
| -30.42M | -38.12M | -18.31M | -48.92M | -19.78M | 1.20M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -11.05M | 2.82M | -3.83M | -5.23M | -863.00K | -184.99M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 67.44M | 52.46M | 42.06M | -103.14M | 180.86M | 192.22M |
BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
3.95
Price Trends
3.26
Positive
4.13
Negative
3.10
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
55.34
Neutral
46.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.64, above the 50-day MA of 3.26, and above the 200-day MA of 3.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBAI.
BigBearai Holdings Risk Analysis
BigBearai Holdings disclosed 87 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BigBearai Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $4.97B | 100.28 | 10.80% | ― | 47.78% | 74.61% | |
67 Neutral | $1.49B | 28.16 | 11.35% | ― | 14.05% | 17.90% | |
66 Neutral | $1.01B | 91.74 | 2.42% | ― | 18.72% | 347.70% | |
64 Neutral | $664.28M | 28.14 | 23.13% | 1.87% | 3.96% | -31.63% | |
61 Neutral | $11.56B | 10.44 | -6.88% | 2.93% | 7.49% | -8.97% | |
60 Neutral | $3.31B | ― | -33.73% | ― | 25.27% | 4.68% | |
54 Neutral | $1.15B | ― | -126.64% | ― | 9.40% | 13.55% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BBAI
BigBearai Holdings
3.79
2.31
156.08%
HCKT
The Hackett Group
24.56
2.79
12.82%
GDYN
Grid Dynamics Holdings
12.24
3.16
34.80%
AI
C3ai
25.67
-4.00
-13.48%
PAY
Paymentus Holdings
38.72
20.43
111.70%
TASK
TaskUs
16.72
2.15
14.76%
BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BigBear.ai Files New Prospectus for Share Sales
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025
On May 10, 2024, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. entered into a Controlled Equity Offering sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., allowing the company to sell shares of its common stock through the sales agent. By May 30, 2025, BigBear.ai had sold shares for gross proceeds of approximately $150 million. On June 2, 2025, the company filed a new prospectus with the SEC to continue the sales under the same terms, maintaining a maximum aggregate offering price of $150 million.
The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
BigBear.ai Holdings Concludes 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025
On June 2, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. conducted its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where holders of 133,264,537 shares were present, fulfilling the quorum requirement. During the meeting, shareholders elected directors Sean Battle, Paul Fulchino, and Dorothy D. Hayes for a three-year term and ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
BigBear.ai Announces Interest Payment in Stock
Neutral
May 15, 2025
On May 15, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. announced that it will pay the upcoming interest on its 6.0% Convertible Senior Secured Notes Due 2029 in shares of its common stock instead of cash. This decision, made in accordance with the terms of the Indenture, may impact the company’s cash flow management and could have implications for stakeholders regarding the company’s financial strategy.
The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.