Church & Dwight (CHD) AI Stock Analysis

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Church & Dwight

(NYSE:CHD)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$111.00

▲(12.01%Upside)

Church & Dwight's solid financial performance underpins its stability, despite a high valuation and mixed technical signals. Earnings call insights underscore ongoing challenges and strategic adjustments, balancing positive brand performance with concerns over sales declines and tariff impacts.

Positive Factors

Financial Stability

CHD's strong balance sheet position supports its ability to engage in further mergers and acquisitions without financial strain.

Market Expansion

Touchland's hand sanitizer brand is characterized by low household penetration but is leading and growing, which presents CHD with significant market expansion opportunities.

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition of Touchland aligns well with Church & Dwight's criteria as it is the fastest growing brand in hand sanitizer, asset light, and gross margin accretive.

Negative Factors

Guidance Reduction

Church & Dwight's business model and categories have not maintained the above-peer growth rate expected, leading to a reduction in 2025 guidance.

Macroeconomic Challenges

CHD reported softer than expected Q1 results and lowered its full year guidance due to the combined impact of tariffs, slower category growth due to macroeconomic uncertainty, and elevated input costs.

Valuation Concerns

CHD's valuation premium vs peers has compressed after weak Q1 EPS and with a difficult US OSG environment.

Church & Dwight (CHD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$24.47B

Dividend Yield1.19%

Average Volume (3M)2.48M

Price to Earnings (P/E)42.6

Beta (1Y)0.07

Revenue Growth2.18%

EPS Growth-26.08%

CountryUS

Employees5,750

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength63

IndustryHousehold & Personal Products

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.91

Shares Outstanding246,277,330

10 Day Avg. Volume2,567,429

30 Day Avg. Volume2,483,727

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.95

Price to Book (P/B)5.61

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio27.72

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.91

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.05

Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.98

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$105.21

Price Target Upside6.17% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering15

Church & Dwight Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products. It operates through three segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products Division. The company offers cat litters, carpet deodorizers, laundry detergents, and baking soda, as well as other baking soda based products under the ARM & HAMMER brand; condoms, lubricants, and vibrators under the TROJAN brand; stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents, and bleach alternatives under the OXICLEAN brand; battery-operated and manual toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSH brand; home pregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand; depilatories under the NAIR brand; oral analgesics under the ORAJEL brand; laundry detergents under the XTRA brand; gummy dietary supplements under the L'IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brands; dry shampoos under the BATISTE brand; water flossers and replacement showerheads under the WATERPIK brand; FLAWLESS products; cold shortening and relief products under the ZICAM brand; and oral care products under the THERABREATH brand. Its specialty products include animal productivity products, such as MEGALAC rumen bypass fat, a supplement that enables cows to maintain energy levels during the period of high milk production; BIO-CHLOR and FERMENTEN, which are used to reduce health issues associated with calving, as well as provides needed protein; and CELMANAX refined functional carbohydrate, a yeast-based prebiotic. The company offers sodium bicarbonate; and cleaning and deodorizing products. It sells its consumer products through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, drugstores, convenience stores, home stores, dollar and other discount stores, pet and other specialty stores, and websites and other e-commerce channels; and specialty products to industrial customers and livestock producers through distributors. The company was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes MoneyChurch & Dwight generates revenue primarily through the sale of consumer products across various categories. The company's revenue model is centered on its strong brand portfolio, which includes household, personal care, and health-related products. Key revenue streams include sales from its well-established brands such as Arm & Hammer, Trojan, and OxiClean. The company leverages its broad distribution network to sell products through major retailers, e-commerce channels, and international markets. Strategic acquisitions and product innovations also play a significant role in driving growth and expanding market share. Partnerships with retailers for shelf space and marketing initiatives further contribute to its earnings.

Church & Dwight Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 0.08%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected a mixed sentiment. While Church & Dwight demonstrated strong brand performance, especially in online sales and certain product categories like TheraBreath and HERO, the company faced challenges with organic sales decline and tariff exposure. The strategic decision to exit certain businesses aims to focus on core brands and mitigate tariff impacts. However, the decline in U.S. organic sales and struggles in the gummy vitamin business present significant challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Brand Performance

Church & Dwight gained share in nine of its 14 major brands, with more than 80% of the business growing volume share in the quarter.

Online Sales Growth

Online sales reached close to 23% of global sales, indicating significant growth in the online class of trade.

TheraBreath and HERO Performance

THERABREATH mouthwash consumption grew 26%, and HERO acne care grew consumption by 13%, both significantly outpacing their categories.

International Business Growth

The international business delivered sales growth of 2.7% in the quarter, with organic sales increasing by 5.8%.

EPS Performance

Adjusted EPS was $0.91, beating the outlook by $0.01.

Negative Updates

Organic Sales Decline

Organic sales decreased by 1.2%, primarily due to retail destocking which accounted for a 300 basis point drag.

U.S. Organic Sales Decline

U.S. organic sales declined by 3%, driven entirely by negative volume from retail destocking.

Gummy Vitamin Business Struggles

The gummy vitamin category grew 4.8%, but Church & Dwight's consumption was down 19%.

Revenue and Organic Sales Decline

Reported revenue was down 2.4%, and organic sales were down 1.2% for the quarter.

Tariff Exposure

The company is projecting a gross 12-month run rate tariff exposure of $190 million, with a net impact expected to reduce exposure by approximately 80%.

Company Guidance

In the Church & Dwight's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance that included several key metrics. The full-year organic sales growth outlook was revised to 0% to 2%, reflecting a weaker U.S. consumer environment and no anticipated bounce-back from Q1 retailer destocking, which accounted for a 300 basis point drag on organic sales. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 was $0.91, slightly exceeding expectations by $0.01. The company also discussed strategic actions, such as pursuing alternatives for the Flawless, Spinbrush, and Waterpik showerhead businesses, which generate 2% of total net sales but have below-average profitability. Additionally, they aim to reduce their 12-month run rate tariff exposure of $190 million by approximately 80% through portfolio decisions and supply chain actions. ARM & HAMMER brands showed strong performance, with laundry detergent consumption growing 3.4% and unit dose rising 26.9% despite the overall category decline. The company remains committed to marketing investments, targeting 11% of net sales for the year, and anticipates EPS growth in the back half of 2025.

Church & Dwight Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Church & Dwight shows stable revenue growth, strong profit margins, and robust cash flow generation. The balance sheet is healthy with prudent debt management. While financial leverage is moderate, the company maintains efficient capital management and operational profitability.

Income Statement

Positive

The income statement reveals a stable but modest revenue growth with a recent slight decline. The gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 45%, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin slightly decreased in the TTM period, settling around 9.5%, reflecting controlled expenses but suggesting room for profit enhancement. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, supporting consistent operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with an equity ratio of 50.8% in the TTM period. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased slightly to 0.53, showing prudent financial leverage management. Return on equity is stable at around 12.7%, indicating effective use of shareholders' capital. However, a moderate level of debt suggests the need for cautious leverage management.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

The cash flow statement reflects robust operational cash generation with a positive trend in free cash flow, growing by approximately 15.6% from the previous period. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at around 1.87, indicating efficient cash conversion from profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also robust at 1.61, suggesting good liquidity and flexibility in meeting financial commitments.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
6.07B	6.11B	5.87B	5.38B	5.19B	4.90B
	Gross Profit
2.73B	2.79B	2.59B	2.25B	2.26B	2.21B
	EBIT
797.40M	807.10M	1.06B	597.80M	1.08B	1.03B
	EBITDA
1.06B	1.06B	1.30B	826.30M	1.30B	1.22B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
577.70M	585.30M	755.60M	413.90M	827.50M	785.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.07B	964.10M	344.50M	270.30M	240.60M	183.10M
	Total Assets
8.96B	8.88B	8.57B	8.35B	8.00B	7.41B
	Total Debt
2.40B	2.20B	2.61B	2.67B	2.56B	2.16B
	Net Debt
1.33B	1.24B	2.26B	2.40B	2.32B	1.98B
	Total Liabilities
4.40B	4.52B	4.71B	4.86B	4.76B	4.39B
	Stockholders Equity
4.55B	4.36B	3.86B	3.49B	3.23B	3.02B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
928.90M	976.40M	807.10M	706.40M	875.00M	891.40M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.08B	1.16B	1.03B	885.20M	993.80M	990.30M
	Investing Cash Flow
-153.20M	-183.30M	-234.30M	-728.60M	-682.00M	-608.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-195.30M	-343.40M	-725.60M	-120.90M	-252.10M	-360.10M

Church & Dwight Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price99.10

Price Trends

50DMA

98.96

Positive

100DMA

103.13

Negative

200DMA

103.57

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.43

Negative

RSI

55.34

Neutral

STOCH

50.14

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 99.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.44, above the 50-day MA of 98.96, and below the 200-day MA of 103.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHD.

Church & Dwight Risk Analysis

Church & Dwight disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Church & Dwight reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Church & Dwight Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IPAR	82 Outperform	$4.48B	27.12	22.16%	2.29%	10.32%	18.55%
CHD	74 Outperform	$24.47B	42.63	13.35%	1.19%	2.18%	-26.08%
KMB	68 Neutral	$44.14B	18.13	229.84%	3.79%	-3.12%	34.80%
KVUE	68 Neutral	$41.32B	39.24	10.22%	3.81%	-1.18%	-29.18%
CL	66 Neutral	$74.51B	26.03	977.07%	2.26%	0.98%	12.12%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$8.92B	15.03	4.68%	6.11%	3.59%	-2.49%
CLX	62 Neutral	$15.64B	22.79	1176.27%	3.85%	-2.64%	189.29%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CHD

Church & Dwight

99.10

-6.18

-5.87%

CLX

Clorox

126.26

-2.30

-1.79%

Colgate-Palmolive

92.11

-0.65

-0.70%

IPAR

Inter Parfums

140.79

30.04

27.12%

KMB

Kimberly Clark

132.85

-1.73

-1.29%

KVUE

Kenvue, Inc.

21.85

4.47

25.72%

Church & Dwight Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Church & Dwight Appoints New CFO Amid Leadership Transition

Neutral

Mar 14, 2025

On March 14, 2025, Church & Dwight Co., Inc. announced the appointment of Lee McChesney as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective March 24, 2025. This change is part of a leadership transition where the current CFO, Richard Dierker, will become the CEO on April 2, 2025, following Matthew T. Farrell’s retirement. This strategic move is expected to impact the company’s operations and leadership structure significantly.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.