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Seagate Tech (STX)
NASDAQ:STX

Seagate Tech (STX) AI Stock Analysis

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Seagate Tech

(NASDAQ:STX)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$128.00
▲(0.28%Upside)
Seagate Tech's overall stock score is driven by strong financial recovery and positive earnings outlook. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, the company's strategic initiatives and share buyback program provide a strong foundation for future growth. High leverage remains a significant risk, requiring continued focus on debt reduction.
Positive Factors
Market Demand
Long-term demand for high-capacity HDDs in data centers is expected to remain strong, supporting Seagate's growth.
Share Repurchase
Seagate announced a $5 billion share buyback authorization, indicating strong financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Technological Advancement
Seagate is the leader in the ramp of HAMR drives, showcasing its technological advancement and market leadership.
Negative Factors
Market Risks
Potential risks include the possibility of the hard disk drive cycle rolling over sooner than expected, tariffs adding incremental costs, and disruption from electronic solid-state drives.

Seagate Tech (STX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSeagate Technology Holdings plc provides data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It provides mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. The company also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives; notebook drives, DVR HDDs, and gaming SSDs. In addition, it provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform. The company sells its products primarily to OEMs, distributors, and retailers. Seagate Technology Holdings plc was founded in 1978 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
How the Company Makes MoneySeagate Technology generates revenue through the sale of its data storage products, primarily hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid-state drives (SSDs). The company's revenue streams are driven by sales to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, and retailers, which supply Seagate's products to end consumers, businesses, and data centers around the world. Seagate also invests in research and development to enhance its product offerings, ensuring they meet the evolving needs of the market. Key partnerships with technology companies and data center operators further bolster Seagate's earnings by facilitating the integration and adoption of its storage solutions in large-scale and cloud environments.

Seagate Tech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 56.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive outlook for Seagate, with strong year-on-year growth in revenue and gross profit, expansion in gross margin, and successful ramp-up of new technology. Despite sequential revenue decline due to supply constraints and potential impacts from tariffs, the company's strategic initiatives and strong financial performance indicate a positive sentiment.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Year-on-Year Revenue and Gross Profit Growth
Seagate delivered a 31% year-on-year increase in revenue and 81% growth in non-GAAP gross profit dollars, reflecting strong financial leverage and execution.
Expansion of Gross Margin
Seagate expanded its non-GAAP gross margin for the eighth straight quarter, achieving 36.2%, a sequential increase of 70 basis points and over 1,000 basis points year-over-year.
Continued Growth in Mass Capacity Storage
Mass capacity revenue increased by 48% year-on-year, with mass capacity shipments up 50% year-on-year, driven by strong demand from cloud customers.
Successful Ramp of HAMR Technology
Seagate is ramping HAMR-based products with positive feedback from cloud customers, expecting a significant increase in HAMR product shipments over the coming quarters.
Improved Free Cash Flow Generation
Free cash flow generation increased to $216 million in the March quarter, with expectations of sequential improvement for the rest of the calendar year.
Debt Reduction Efforts
Seagate retired approximately $536 million of debt during the March quarter, reducing the debt balance to $5.1 billion.
Negative Updates
Sequential Revenue Decline
March quarter revenue of $2.16 billion was down 7% sequentially, limited by temporary supply constraints.
Impact of Tariffs on Future Performance
Although minimal impact is expected in the fourth quarter due to tariffs, the company is monitoring the situation and evaluating strategic solutions to mitigate long-term risks.
Potential OpEx Increase Due to Extended September Quarter
The September quarter will have 14 weeks instead of the usual 13, leading to potential higher operating expenses for that period.
Company Guidance
During the Seagate Technology Fiscal Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company reported a notable 31% year-on-year increase in revenue and an 81% growth in non-GAAP gross profit dollars. This strong performance was highlighted by the expansion of the gross margin for the eighth consecutive quarter and the achievement of the third highest operating margin in the company's history. The non-GAAP EPS performance was at the top of the guidance range, with increased free cash flow generation. For the March quarter, Seagate's revenue was $2.16 billion, slightly down 7% sequentially due to temporary supply constraints, yet highlighting a 48% increase in mass capacity revenue year-on-year. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded by 70 basis points sequentially to 36.2%. The company anticipates revenue of $2.4 billion, plus or minus $150 million, for the June quarter, reflecting an 11% improvement sequentially and a 27% improvement year-over-year. Non-GAAP EPS for the June quarter is expected to be $2.40, plus or minus $0.20.

Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Seagate Tech shows strong income statement performance with a robust revenue growth rate and profitability recovery. However, a weak balance sheet due to high leverage and negative equity, coupled with strong cash flow generation, results in a moderate financial performance score.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Seagate Tech demonstrates a strong gross profit margin of 33.8% TTM, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly to 17.5% TTM from previous losses, highlighting a return to profitability. Revenue growth rate is robust at 30.3% TTM, showcasing strong sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 19.1% and 24.8% TTM, respectively, reflecting operational efficiency and profitability.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet shows challenges with a negative stockholders' equity due to high total debt, resulting in a weak debt-to-equity ratio that implies significant leverage risk. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting financial instability. However, the company has managed to reduce its net debt over time, which is a positive sign of improving financial health.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Seagate Tech's free cash flow growth rate is 16.4% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.68, suggesting good cash conversion from earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, reflecting effective capital expenditure management and the ability to generate substantial free cash flow relative to net income.
Breakdown
TTMJun 2024Jun 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
8.54B6.55B7.38B11.66B10.68B10.51B
Gross Profit
2.89B1.55B1.35B3.47B2.92B2.84B
EBIT
1.63B452.00M-342.00M1.96B1.49B1.30B
EBITDA
2.12B1.03B301.00M2.41B1.90B1.76B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.49B335.00M-529.00M1.65B1.31B1.00B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
814.00M1.36B786.00M615.00M1.21B1.72B
Total Assets
7.56B7.74B7.56B8.94B8.68B8.93B
Total Debt
5.15B6.07B5.45B5.65B5.14B4.17B
Net Debt
4.33B4.71B4.67B5.03B3.93B2.45B
Total Liabilities
8.39B9.23B8.76B8.84B8.04B7.14B
Stockholders Equity
-829.00M-1.49B-1.20B109.00M631.00M1.79B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
773.00M664.00M626.00M1.28B1.13B1.13B
Operating Cash Flow
1.01B918.00M942.00M1.66B1.63B1.71B
Investing Cash Flow
137.00M126.00M217.00M-352.00M-466.00M-635.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.13B-473.00M-988.00M-1.90B-1.67B-1.60B

Seagate Tech Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price127.64
Price Trends
50DMA
92.00
Positive
100DMA
93.59
Positive
200DMA
96.37
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
8.89
Negative
RSI
84.60
Negative
STOCH
97.34
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 127.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 109.89, above the 50-day MA of 92.00, and above the 200-day MA of 96.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 84.60 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STX.

Seagate Tech Risk Analysis

Seagate Tech disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Seagate Tech reported the most risks in the “Ability to Sell” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Seagate Tech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$24.59B23.8421.03%82.10%6.35%
77
Outperform
$20.38B17.42108.51%2.10%5.00%22.19%
75
Outperform
$17.53B147.669.76%10.85%30.85%
STSTX
68
Neutral
$25.29B17.22-109.27%2.30%36.29%
WDWDC
66
Neutral
$18.76B10.3528.45%21.22%
HPHPQ
64
Neutral
$23.40B9.6084.33%4.45%2.08%-12.41%
61
Neutral
$11.55B10.41-6.86%2.93%7.50%-8.30%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
STX
Seagate Tech
127.64
33.79
36.00%
HPQ
HP
25.18
-9.25
-26.87%
NTAP
NetApp
103.76
-16.18
-13.49%
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
44.13
-36.12
-45.01%
WDC
Western Digital
54.43
-3.57
-6.16%
PSTG
Pure Storage
54.72
-8.76
-13.80%

Seagate Tech Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Announces Exchange Offer for Outstanding Notes
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 27, 2025, Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd., a subsidiary of Seagate Technology Holdings, issued $400 million in 5.875% Senior Notes due 2030. These notes are guaranteed by Seagate and its subsidiaries, and the issuance is part of a strategic financial maneuver to manage and optimize its debt structure. Additionally, on May 28, 2025, Seagate announced an exchange offer for eight series of outstanding notes issued by Seagate HDD Cayman, aiming to replace them with new notes issued by Seagate Data Storage Technology. This move is intended to streamline Seagate’s financial operations and potentially improve its market positioning by consolidating its debt under a single issuer.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Announces $5 Billion Share Buyback
Positive
May 22, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced the approval of a $5 billion share repurchase program by its board of directors. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and reflects its strong financial position. The repurchase program is flexible, allowing for various methods of share acquisition, and does not have an expiration date. The company is also hosting an analyst and investor day in New York City to discuss this approval and outline new financial targets through fiscal year 2028.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 12, 2025, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced that its subsidiary, Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd., entered into a purchase agreement to issue and sell $400 million of 5.875% Senior Notes due 2030. The offering, expected to close on May 27, 2025, aims to finance the redemption of Seagate HDD Cayman’s outstanding 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027. This move is part of Seagate’s strategy to manage its debt obligations effectively, potentially impacting its financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 12, 2025

On May 12, 2025, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced a private offering of $400 million in senior notes due 2030 through its subsidiary, Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd. The proceeds, along with cash on hand, will be used to redeem all outstanding 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027, which is conditional upon receiving sufficient net proceeds from financing transactions. This move is part of Seagate’s strategic financial management to optimize its debt structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Seagate Tech Director Judy Bruner to Step Down
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 2, 2025, Judy Bruner informed Seagate Technology’s Board of Directors that she will not seek re-election at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. Her decision is not due to any disagreements with the company, and she will remain a director until the meeting concludes. The Board expressed gratitude for her contributions.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Seagate Tech Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Apr 29, 2025

On April 29, 2025, Seagate Technology announced its fiscal third quarter 2025 financial results, reporting a revenue of $2.16 billion and a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.90. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share, payable on July 8, 2025. Seagate’s performance reflects profitable growth and margin expansion, attributed to structural enhancements in its business model and a healthy supply/demand environment for mass capacity storage. The company remains focused on executing its HAMR product ramp to meet cloud customer demand, despite navigating a dynamic macroeconomic environment.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
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